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Learning from History

Learning from History

Thinking the Unthinkable
Get out of Afghanistan and Iraq?

Countries like Denmark, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany, and Spain have had and continue to have bombs and bomb scares from militant Muslims, Islamists. Those bombings and those scares are likely to go on for the rest of this century, so dedicated and obsessed are the Islamists. That chronic danger has been internalized by the Danes and the Dutch and the rest, and life goes on.

Yet, none of those countries deploys armies abroad to protect themselves. Instead, operating through NATO, they send a limited number of troops here and there to help out, in Afghanistan mostly.

Related
PARIS — Osama bin Laden warned France in an audiotape broadcast by Al Jazeera television on Wednesday that it would face killings and kidnappings if it did not withdraw troops from Afghanistan. He also justified the kidnapping of five French citizens in Niger last month, saying that France mistreated its Muslims. “The equation is very clear and simple: as you kill, you will be killed; as you take others hostages, you will be taken hostages; as you waste our security we will waste your security,” Mr. bin Laden said.

France has about 3,750 troops in Afghanistan, making it the fourth biggest contributor to the international military mission. -- Source misplaced

No one has captured bin Laden (hiding in caves and issuing audio and video threats), but the evidence is pretty conclusive that Al Qaeda is less centrally organized than our Tea Party. It is now questionable whether "If we go after them over there, they won't come here" remains a valid policy -- either in terms of dead/wounded or of money. If we pull out  out of Afghanistan and Iraq, the threat of mainland violence becomes no greater than what Europe is experiencing.

The foiled attack out of Yemen a few days ago was mounted despite our massive military presence abroad. It is typical of the type of action against which no country can guarantee 100% prvention.

Maintaining most of our hundreds of strategic military installations around the world, we retain our ability to mount punitive and preemptive strikes against activities or threats by Islamists or others. We don't desert the Afghans or the Iraqis. Instead, we continue to offer appropriate financial and in-kind aid indefinitely. Exactly as we have been offering Israel since its founding and Egypt for decades. The financial cost will be billions less. -- Oct 2010

Learning from history has its limits
Obviously I'm a history buff, confident that many of its lessons apply to current conditions. But, as numerous as are parallels and similarities between past and present, the need to exercise judgment remains, because history contains contradictory lessons. As only one example, think of sanctions, such as the West is attempting to impose on Iran. Will stronger sanctions move them to give up their nuclear ambitions?

Certainly, worldwide sanctions contributed to the demise of apartheid to the transformation in South Africa. . . . Just as certainly, Roosevelt's harsh sanctions on Japan -- no more oil, no more scrap metal -- led to Pearl Harbor.

As another example: we are considering as one option in Iraq the division of that country into three ethnic provinces,. It is scary to recall the death, misery, chaos when Britain made the separation of Hindus, Sikhs, and Muslims a condition of granting independence to India -- giving us continual Hindu-Muslim conflict and Kashmir and Pakistan. How disappointing, after historian Durant's praise of Mahatma Gandhi: "A revolution led by a saint and waged without a gun.". . . Will properly designed federalism succeed with Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia provinces? --  July 2007

§ World War I destroyed the Hohenzollern, Hapsburg, and Romanov dynasties and the Ottoman Empire. The United States experienced relatively few casualties and came out of that war unscathed and "notoriously battened upon a war boom," in the words of one historian. A similar European perception about World War II does not justify but helps explain the apparent ingratitude of Europeans for America's military and economic aid during and after both wars.

§ History really is old!
The city of Basra in Iraq, much in the news because of recent British difficulties there, was the second home of the Islamic military order, The Assassins, during the Crusades. Depending on political developments over a 200-year span, the Assassins either fought against or allied with the Christian military orders: Knights Templar, Knights Hospitaller, Teutonic Knights. . . . Three hundred years later, three Muslim dynasties were operating, all Turkish-speaking: The Ottomans were Sunni, and they dominated much of Europe. The Mughals, also Sunni, dominated India; the Safavid, based in Persia (Iran), were Shia. Even then, the Sunnis and the Shias fought each other, no matter whom else they were fighting at the moment.

In Love and War
In love and war, critical second-guessing or Monday-morning quarterbacking can't be proved right or wrong -- but it is almost always unfair.

On Love:
There is an advice to the lovelorn feature in the Detroit News in which four purported sisters answer the same plea for help. The poor guy or gal asking for advice is fortunate because he may end up with two, three, or four -- usually conflicting -- suggestions.

On War: 
World War II teaches us many lessons.

To begin with, right until Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, equally patriotic Americans argued about whether we should care at all about "helping England preserve its Empire" or whether we should care how long Germany and the USSR remained at war. Roosevelt was a "war-monger," of course, and the America First crowd were "unthinking isolationists." Once the war began, except for a tiny group of Pacifists, Americans rallied to the cause -- but our government and military leaders throughout the war continued to have serious differences about how the war should be fought.

The first argument was: Since Japan attacked us, we should make the Pacific War our top priority. No, Hitler must be defeated first.

About Europe, the fierce debates raged about: when and where a second front should be mounted -- Cross Channel, Southern France, "soft underbelly of Europe" (the Balkans). Compromises led to fighting in North Africa, then in Sicily, then in Italy. There were arguments about whether Great Britain's General Montgomery was a brilliantly cautious commander or a cowardly martinet, about whether our General Patton deserved more honors or dishonorable discharge. Given today's tendency to blame somebody quickly, it is interesting that none of the top generals was threatened with more than a slap on the wrist for some pretty horrendous errors, like missing the German build up which led to the Battle of the Bulge.

About Japan, It is now undeniable that Roosevelt and the Chiefs of Staff lied to MacArthur -- promising reinforcements in men and planes they knew weren't available because they were concentrating on Europe first. . . . The Navy and the Army disagreed over how the Pacific War should be fought -- over which part of the giant ocean we should move first to take back, to control. . . . Our military and Britain's military were frequently at odds. . . . One may be forgiven for believing in miracles when victory came despite the fact that China's goal was to eliminate Communism, Britain's was to maintain her Asiatic empire, and America's was to defeat Japan.

We were not alone: the Japanese Navy and Army argued with each other about when and where to mount their hoped-for "decisive battle." . . . Even after multiple defeats trying to recapture Guadalcanal from us, it was only the fear that there might not be enough military strength left to defend the Home Islands that forced the Japanese military to compromise and quit that island. . . . With more than a million troops still fighting in China, Japan had repeated arguments about whether to move north -- to protect against Russia, or to move south -- to gain access to the raw materials in threatened English, French, and Dutch colonies. . . . From before Pearl Harbor through the days after Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed, the War Party and those we would call "peaceniks" remained at odds.

The point of all this: Except for the unavoidable occasional individual incompetence and dishonesty, there were no foreseeable completely right decisions. In war, we are always dealing with judgment calls. That "ego" drove/drives some of the debates is not worrisome. God, I wouldn't want military and government leaders who don't have ego. -- FJV

Sought or not, world power brings world responsibilities
In the first half of the 19th Century, one of the developments in southern Africa which led to the England's Boer War was the Boer (essentially ethnic Dutch) inability to quell completely the raids on their settlements by Zulus and Bushmen. Reluctant to ignore its early responsibility for the settlements, England would not stop attempting to impose overall control "until the Boers have established a stable government of their own."

In early skirmishes between the Boers and the English, the firepower of England's traditional kneel-and-fire volleys was unable to overcome the Boers' guerilla tactics of weapon-fire from behind trees and rocks.

Simultaneously, World Power England was fighting in Afghanistan, India, Crimea, New Zealand, everywhere.

Sound familiar? -- Sep 2006

Remember when Japan was our enemy?
Remember when Japan was our enemy? When Iran was our friend? When India was our "non-aligned" Cold War irritant? When Turkey sided with Germany in World War I but with us in World War II?

Now, Japan helps us maintain economic/political/military stability in Asia. Iran thumbs its nose at the West. Polls in India show 74% of them have a favorable impression of the United States. Turkey is hoping to become the first non-Christian member of the European Union.

Things change, eh?

Even now, though, consider that Iran:

  • Since 2003 has officially played a generally constructive role in Iraq.

  • Was the first country in the region to send an official delegation to deal with the Iraqi Government.

  • Extended financial aid and export credits to Iraq.

  • Has offered to help to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure.

Of course, Iran is also helping Iraq's Shiite militias and is a supporter of Hezbollah.  Nevertheless, remember that  Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. Mideast observers have commented, "Iran has much to fear from a civil war in Iraq."

Damn, life is complicated. -- 06 Sep 06

World War I fear: civil war in America
Our understandable concern about possible civil war among the contending religious and ethnic groups in Iraq makes it difficult to relate to the fact that one major reason that President Wilson thought he had to keep the country neutral for so long was the WASP fear of what was termed America's "tribal syndrome." There was extensive uneasiness in government circles that German Americans, Hungarian Americans, and Italian Americans, labeled the "average ethnocentric citizen," identified with "the country of their ancestral extraction." Added to the groups named above were American Jews, who had "deep seated antipathy against tsarist Russia," and the English-hating Irish.

Here's how one historian described the situation: "Government leaders assumed that the nation could never take part on either side without bringing on a civil war at home."

Learning from history
When the British withdrew from India --

after almost 200 years of colonial occupation -- no civil war erupted, but "British India's professional army was sliced along [Hindu and Muslim] lines" and "millions of people died or became refugees." Way before that, the English-trained Indian troops mutinied, and there were massacres conducted by the Indians and by the English. Great Britain was . . . embarrassed? weakened? relieved of the burden? essentially unaffected?

There's lesson here re Iraq, but does it teach us to "stay the course" or to "cut and run"?

About FDR
'History's final verdict will not be known to this generation.'
In 1955, historians Alice and John Durant (not Will and Ariel Durant) wrote of Franklin Delano Roosevelt:

Roosevelt, say his adherents, was president during the greatest depression and the greatest war in the history of the world, and he defeated them both.

To this his critics reply that the depression was deepening in 1937 after four years of Roosevelt (which it was) and that prosperity was restored only because of European war orders. As for the war, while Roosevelt was promising again and again to keep us out, he was at the same time deliberately, secretly, and unlawfully steering us into it. Furthermore, they say, everything gained in the war was lost at Yalta.

History's final verdict will not be known to this generation.

Given the frequency with which "history" is re-interpreted and revised these days, there will probably never be a "final" verdict.

How national and international affairs intertwine
Early in our Civil War, when the Confederacy was doing well militarily, France and England were poised to recognize the South as a separate country, for reasons of their own, and Abraham Lincoln recognized that preserving the Union was of no concern to Europeans. England was especially interested in protecting its supply of cotton from the southern states. That country had put troops in Canada, hoping to help defeat the North.

Remembering that it was England which first moved against slavery, Lincoln pulled the Emancipation Proclamation off his desk, where it had been for quite a while, and announced it as the Union's policy a few days after the Battle of Antietam eliminated the threat of an invasion of the North by Robert E. Lee. As one historian reports, The Emancipation Proclamation proved to be "a powerful document that practically prohibited any foreign nation of intervening" in American affairs." -- May 2006

Communists/Socialists/Fascists are not completely bad!
American conservatives, some of us, are uncomfortable acknowledging that not everything the communists proclaim is bad for mankind. Even Puritans have to agree with the intentions, if not the practices, of communists relative to motherhood, families, schooling, health. For some reason, though, lefties seem to have a harder time recognizing that fascists had some good points too. After World War I, remember, it was almost impossible to find any European intellectual who was not either a socialist/communist or a fascist. Both camps hated democracy, especially parliamentary democracy. The choice was between authoritarianism of the left or of the right.

To this day, the snide comment that Mussolini's greatest accomplishment was to "make the trains run on time" demonstrates ignorance about and a lack of understanding of post-war Europe's communist-driven instability. In Italy, the communist-led transportation workers refused to operate any train intended to transfer police or military personnel to where they were needed. By restoring functionality to the trains, the Italian dictator took a giant step forward -- both pragmatically and symbolically -- to re-establish stability and civility in a chaotic society.

Look at the map of Europe. Had it not been for, first, Spain's Franco, then Italy's Mussolini, and finally Germany's Hitler, that self-proclaimed "freedom-loving democracy," the USSR, would today be forcing its brand of freedom from the Urals to the English Channel. -- May 2006

Do these words sound familiar?

  • the growing importance of world opinion

  • American imperialists want America to have an empire

  • the tendency to equate power with virtue

  • the long down-slide into Western civilization

  • Americans feel qualified to perform the teaching of democracy

  • the idea of being responsible for the whole world

  • we will never go back on a commitment, no matter how unwise

  • the reduced role of the Congress and the enhanced role of the President

  • without reference to the United Nations

Those are among the sentiments, which many readers will apply to Iraq and to the war on terror, made in a 1966 book by Democrat Senator J. William Fullbright, who contended that -- under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson -- America was "unmistakably" showing signs of "arrogance of power" -- the title of his book.

Not quite a doctrinaire pacifist, Fullbright nevertheless found it difficult to consider any war "just." He included our Civil War among those wars he labeled "unnecessary."

[Federalist Papers re strong, 'unitary' president]

Does the U.S. want, need, a "unitary" executive?
A debate over the pluses and minuses of a "unitary" presidency has resulted from Bush's insistence that he has the right to do some of the things he is doing: continue the fight in Iraq, retain prisoners, listen to conversations of suspected terrorists, chop wood on his ranch. Not many of those making proclamations for or against a strong executive recall or ever knew that our Founding Fathers debated the issue at length. One faction, led by such eminent thinkers as Ben Franklin, feared a possible kingly tyranny so much that they suggested a triumvirate executive, three guys sharing presidential powers.

The decision was to establish a strong presidency. The winning arguments were summarized in Federalist Paper Number 70, written by Publius, actually Alexander Hamilton. The Founding Fathers drew heavily on the experiences of Rome when writing our constitution; terms like "Tribunes," "Decemvirs of Rome," and "Consuls" appear often in their writings. Here, with original spelling and style retained, are excerpts from Federalist Paper Number 70:

There is an idea, which is not without its merits, that a vigorous Executive is inconsistent with the genius of republican government.

Energy in the Executive is a leading character in the definition of good government.

A feeble Executive implies a feeble execution of the government.

A government ill executed, whatever it may be in theory, must be, in practice, a bad government.

The ingredients which constitute energy in the Executive are, first, unity; secondly, duration; thirdly, an adequate provision for its support; fourthly, competent powers.

That unity is conducive to energy will not be disputed. Decision, activity, secrecy, and despatch will generally characterise the proceedings of one man in a much more eminent degree than the proceedings of any greater number; and in proportion as the number is increased, these qualities will be diminished.

The experience of other nations . . . teaches us not to be enamoured of plurality in the Executive.

In the legislature, promptitude of decision is oftener an evil than a benefit.

But one of the weightiest objections to a plurality in the Executive . . . is that it tends to conceal faults and destroy responsibility.

All multiplication of the Executive is rather dangerous than friendly to liberty.

And from Federalist Paper Number 71:

To what purpose separate the executive or the judiciary from the legislative, if both the executive and the judiciary are so constituted as to be at the absolute devotion of the legislative?

It is one thing to be subordinate to the laws, and another to be dependent on the legislative body.


How long will it last?
"It" being . . . Iraq . . . War against Terrorism . . . Disagreements among Allies . . . Dislike/resentment of the currently most powerful country

A little perspective:
* Islam, in one form or another, dominated Europe, especially Spain, for about 800 years.

* England/Great Britain occupied India for almost 200 years, during which it conducted massacres as horrendous as those committed by the Asian Indians.

For most of Europe's history, France, not Germany, was the continental military aggressor. One easy inference from the tabulation below is that, together, France and England have been responsible for most of Western World's wars.

Also see World Affairs

1337-1453
Hundred Years War
Combatant
s:
England & France
Issues
:
Inability of the English and French leaders to agree or to compromise about control of Continental areas whose "ownership" vacillated as kings, queens, dukes, married or not.

1455-85
Wars of the Roses
Combatants
:
English civil war between the Houses of York and of Lancaster
Issues
:
Typical power struggle between factions, based partly on Yorkist unhappiness with conduct of the Hundred Years War (see above).

1618-48
Thirty Years War
Combatants
:
A general European war fought mostly in Germany
Issues
:
Mostly a religious war between German Protestant princes (allied with England, France, Sweden, Denmark) and Hapsburg-led Catholic Holy Roman Empire (primarily Spain and Austria).

1701-14
War of the Spanish Succession
Combatants
:
General European war
Issues
:
Efforts by French King Louis XIV to extend French power after multiple pretenders to the Spanish throne emerged.

1740-48
War of the Austrian Succession
Combatants
:
General European war
Issues
:
Disputed claims between Austrian Maria Theresa, Bavarian Charles Albert, Spanish Philip V, and Polish Augustus III, and Prussian Frederick II for control of the remnants of the Holy Roman Empire.

1756-63
The Seven Years War
Combatants:
A world-wide war fought in Europe, North America, and India, with France, Austria, Sweden, Spain on one side and Great Britain, Prussia, and Hanover on the other. North America's French and Indian War was a part of this struggle, as was a parallel French and Indian War in India (see immediately below).
Issues:
Colonial rivalry between France and England, and the struggle for supremacy in Germany

1857-58
Indian Mutiny/Sepoy Rebellion
Combatants:
British and Indian soldiers in Bengal Army of the British East India Company
Issues:
Social and political unrest caused by British control over India's economy and culture. Use of pig grease and cow grease on bullets offended Muslims and Hindus respectively. Simultaneously France and England were fighting for supremacy in India.
[Most of the information in this column is derived from the New Columbia Encyclopedia, 1975 edition.]

 

Related Links

The Arrogance of Power

Unitary President

How long will Iraq war last?

France & England forever at war

World Affairs

 

It doesn't take long to be "great"
The historical and geopolitical greatness of such men as Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon, and Hitler is so extensive over time and area that one tends to think these individuals lived forever. In every instance, though, they made their impact in a very few years:

For VersagiVoice readers who are aghast that Hitler is included in this mini-essay, two points: First, Greatness is a measure of impact, not of virtue, and impact may be good or evil or, usually, both. Second, Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon, Hitler -- all were obsessed with their own visions and ambitions; all of them practiced and condoned murder, massacre, rape, torture, pillaging, and occasional leniency to achieve their goals, their greatness.

Jesus changed the world after preaching for 3 years.

Want to make an impact? Do your best at whatever you're doing now.